Memory supercycle roars on

According to Yicai Global, the financial news arm of Shanghai Media Group, in August 8GB DDR4 modules were selling below $12:60, but in September they rose about 44%  to $14-18.

In October, 16GB DDR4 modules rose around $25.20 to $44-60, while 16GB DDR5 modules  reached roughly $73, says Yicai.

A Lenovo 16GB DDR5 module that stayed at around $40 from May to early September has risen to around $80 and a Samsung 16GB DDR5 module selling near $52 in September is now over $100.

Spot prices of DDR5 chips rose 30% last week, says TrendForce.

Last week, Samsung  increased the contract price for 32 GB DDR5 modules from $149  to $239  and the price of 16GB DDR5 and 128GB DDR5 modules by about 50% to $135 and $1,194 respectively, reports Reuters, while prices of 64GB DDR5 and 96GB DDR5 are reported to have gone up by more than 30%.

However, there is not much hope of relief for users. DRAM capex of $53.7bn in 2025 is expected to rise about 14% to $61.3bn in 2026, but it will not be going into capacity but into process technology upgrades, higher-layer stacking, hybrid bonding and high-value products such as HBM.

Micron is expected to be the most aggressive investor among DRAM suppliers, with the company’s 2026 CapEx projected at $13.5bn, up 23% y-o-y, and focusing primarily on 1-gamma node adoption and expanding TSV equipment.

Hynix is expected to spend  $20.5bn, up 17% y-o-y, thanks to HBM4 capacity expansion at the M15x fab.

Samsung plans to invest $20bn—up 11% y-o-y—to advance 1C process HBM production and slightly expand P4L wafer capacity.

The effects are being seen in consumer markets. Yicai reports that the 2TB iPhone 17 Pro Max now costs $560 more than the 1TB model.

Also, SMIC says its customers for logic are delaying Q1 orders because of the shortage of memories.