I wisely resisted a Polymarket bet at the beginning of hostilities that there was a 38% chance of regime change by March 31 but I have a bet on a 38% chance that it will be done by June 31st and a bigger bet on a 52% chance that it will be done by the end of the year.
Defence company stocks are an obvious play with BAe and Leonardo up nearly 30% in the last six months. I’ve been in both for over a year in the expectation that the US planned for war and we would be involved.
I am cosying up to an ambitious PPS in the Department of Defence to find out about upcoming military actions or talks about entering negotiations which move markets substantially.
The PPS also tips me off on which companies the orders are going for replenishing stocks of munitions which steers my share-dealing decisions to best effect.
Arms companies anxious to get more of the action are seeing me as a conduit for getting procurement preference and I am encouraging them to follow that line of thought. The defence guys are familiar with with the concept of sweeteners and theirs are generous.
The oil market is the day-to-day opportunity for a flutter I have a couple of the smarter oil traders making punts on ny behalf in return for the political info I can feed them.
The thing we’re all worried about is that it’ll all be over too soon. So pols like me, who are making money out of the war, are vocal in Cabinet and Whitehall for advocating aggressive moves to keep it going.
The Simon Pures, and those too thick to see the opportunities, are the ones bleating about negotiations.
However, even if it’s done by June I’ll have had a good war thanks to my Polymarket bet.
