{"id":831957,"date":"2023-12-01T16:39:32","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T16:39:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.electronicsweekly.com\/?p=831957"},"modified":"2023-12-01T16:54:36","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T16:54:36","slug":"ecsn-reviews-2023-and-provides-outlook-for-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.electronicsweekly.com\/uncategorised\/ecsn-reviews-2023-and-provides-outlook-for-2024-2023-12\/","title":{"rendered":"ECSN: cautious optimism for 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, Aubrey Dunford, the ECSN (Electronic Components Supply Network) market analyst declared the UK electronics components market had returned to normality. At this year&#8217;s Electronics Components Forecast, he reclassified its status as a new, new normal.<\/p><div class=\"elect-content\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"elect-1035964417\"><div id=\"x02\">\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> if ($(window).width() <= 768) { googletag.display('x02'); } <\/script>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_832007\" style=\"width: 2570px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a rel=\"image\" href=\"https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-832007\" class=\"wp-image-832007 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-300x130.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-1024x444.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-768x333.jpg 768w, https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-1536x666.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/static.electronicsweekly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/01163534\/ECSN-news-Growth-by-Quarter-2017-Q3-2023-with-2024-Forecast-2048x888.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-832007\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">2024 total forecast 1.6% (min) to 4.1% (max)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>At the end of 2022, ECSN suppliers were preparing for 2023 with strong order books and confidence in customer demand and an expectation that prices will generally be maintained. Another prediction for 2023 was that growth in the first half of this year was likely but the second half would be less certain as pent-up demand for 5G and smart vehicle infrastructure systems could bear fruit. The book-to-bill ratio was expected to remain strong in 2023 as lead times returned to more normal levels albeit with some shortages expected. All of this came to pass despite uncertainties such as product availability, global trade and political tensions and falling consumer confidence. At the time, Dunford maintained that authorised distributors are &#8220;key to helping the industry find its way through uncertainties&#8221;.<\/p><div class=\"elect-test\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"elect-82051457\"><div id=\"DFP-EW-InRead1\">\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> if ($(window).width() > 768) { googletag.display('DFP-EW-InRead1'); } <\/script>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<BR>\r\n<\/div>\n<p>Component market sales in 2023 were high with a DTAM of \u00a31886m and a TAM of \u00a34254m, compared to \u00a31722 (DTAM) and \u00a33938m (TAM) in 2022.<\/p><div class=\"elect-post-content-2\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"elect-2130390498\"><div id=\"DFP-EW-InRead1-Mobile\">\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> if ($(window).width() <= 768) { googletag.display('DFP-EW-InRead1-Mobile'); } <\/script>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n<p>For 2024, ECSN members are cautious, based on many statistics. Firstly, inventory is still high, making it difficult to judge demand. Price pressures will be minimal and price levels achieved in 2023 are expected to be maintained. A flat first half is expected, supported by the HM Treasury&#8217;s comparison of independent forecasts predicts UK economy average growth of 0.5% for 2023 and 0.4% for 2024. The second half of the year will depend on trade and political tensions, with the added unrest in the Middle East and what effect that will have, not least in terms of oil price rises.<\/p>\n<p>There is still a demand for 5G and vehicle infrastructure systems and some strong demand particularly in the industrial sector as UK manufacturing output rises. There are indications that some market sectors will remain strong, said Dunford, but the overall picture is uncertain. A growth in UK consumption may not be reflected in sales in 2024. It is important to note, said Dunford that manufacturers do not know how much stock is out there, as double ordering of inventory through the pandemic is still to be worked through. The DTAM quarter-on-quarter growth since 2021 is related to price increases in a commodity market rather than increased unit sales, he added.<\/p>\n<p>The one seeming certainty is moderate growth in the first half of 2024, said Dunford, followed by a slight to moderate (~1.4% growth), he estimated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, Aubrey Dunford, the ECSN (Electronic Components Supply Network) market analyst declared the UK electronics components market had returned to normality. At this year&#8217;s Electronics Components Forecast, he reclassified &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7791,"featured_media":832007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12654,12662,12640,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-831957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-distribution","category-market-research","category-news","category-uncategorised","interest-business","interest-distribution"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ECSN: cautious optimism for 2024 | Electronics Weekly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last year, Aubrey Dunford, the ECSN (Electronic Components Supply Network) market analyst declared the UK electronics components market had returned to\" \/>\n<meta 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